BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Utah has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Utah. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Utah is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Utah is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.80.0012
20274.80.0012
20284.80.0012
20294.80.0012
20304.80.0012

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res5520181995
Saleratus Cr4120181995
Jensen3220251992
Bicknell3220251997
Grouse Creek2920101982
Vernon1820251992
Vernal1720181999
Bullfrog Bay1720082005
Gold Hill1620251991
Grantsville1620252001
Altonah1520251968
M Warner Res1520251993
Willow Creek1320241986
Leamington1220171992
Canyon Rims1220251998
Monticello1120251998
Indian Peak1020191992
Moon Lake 21020232004
Clive920212002
E. Bear Lake920251995
Bonanza820151992
Randolph820251992
Jericho Junction720252001
Timpie Spg620031978
Iron Springs620231985

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.