BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Utah has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Utah. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Utah is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Utah is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0012
20265.00.0012
20274.90.0012
20284.90.0012
20294.90.0012

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res5520181995
Saleratus Cr4120181995
Altonah3720151968
Grouse Creek2920101982
M Warner Res2320241993
Grantsville2220242001
Lynn1920231982
Jensen1920241992
E. Bear Lake1920221995
Vernal1720181999
Bullfrog Bay1720082005
Goose Creek Mtn.1520231997
Snowville1520241999
Randolph1420241992
Willow Creek1320241986
Leamington1220171992
Indian Peak1020191992
Moon Lake 21020232004
Promontory920241969
Vernon920241992
Clive920212002
Canyon Rims920241998
Bonanza820151992
Heber Mtn.820242001
Jericho Junction820242001

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.