BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in New Mexico has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+210%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in New Mexico: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.81
20270.330.000.81
20280.330.000.81
20290.330.000.81
20300.330.000.81

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dulce1120252000
Torreon920251975
Stinking Lk.319991995
La Plata319981990
Roswell219721972
Shiprock220251998
Datil219951995
Farmington119871975
Nageesi120251968
Cebolla119921977
Farley120112011
Crownpoint119791979
Pecos120152015
Fence Lake120211977
Horse Spgs120231993
Counselor120112011
Mcgaffey119961996
Sanostee120242024
Aztec119891988

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.