BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.1–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.1–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025176.328
2026176.328
2027176.228
2028176.228
2029176.128

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Simon13620241969
Pomerene8220241968
Redington8020231993
Carr Mtn7920241985
Navajo Trail6820241994
Page5720191993
Cutter5620141992
Riviera5320241992
Cutter 25220182015
Toroweap5120241994
Wickenburg4920232017
Antares4120241994
Willow Beach3819971989
Willow Beach 23720242002
House Rock3220221968
Ajo2920081968
Mcneal2920241992
Dragoon2720091993
Peach Spring2620241992
Pisinimo2519931992
Cabeza Priet2520241993
The Gap2319761968
Casa Grande2320221990
Bartlett Res2220241992
Wikieup2120241992

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.