BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 6.0–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 6.0–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026176.228
2027176.228
2028176.128
2029176.128
2030176.028

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Simon13620241969
Pomerene9020251968
Riviera8220251992
Toroweap5920251994
Page5720191993
Cutter5620141992
Mcneal5620251992
Cutter 25220182015
Carr Mtn5120251985
Wickenburg4920232017
Willow Beach3819971989
House Rock3220221968
Willow Beach 23020252002
Ajo2920081968
Dragoon2720091993
Redington2720251993
Peach Spring2620251992
Alamo Res.2520251992
Pisinimo2519931992
Bartlett Res2420251992
The Gap2319761968
Casa Grande2320221990
Wikieup2120241992
Sunizona 22120252001
Bates Well2020231995

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.