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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970
76Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in Arizona

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.1–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029
17Projected 2029 index
6.1–2895% range
±19.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025176.328
2026176.328
2027176.228
2028176.228
2029176.128

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Arizona.
San Simon13620241969
Pomerene8220241968
Redington8020231993
Carr Mtn7920241985
Navajo Trail6820241994
Page5720191993
Cutter5620141992
Riviera5320241992
Cutter 25220182015
Toroweap5120241994
Wickenburg4920232017
Antares4120241994
Willow Beach3819971989
Willow Beach 23720242002
House Rock3220221968
Ajo2920081968
Mcneal2920241992
Dragoon2720091993
Peach Spring2620241992
Pisinimo2519931992
Cabeza Priet2520241993
The Gap2319761968
Casa Grande2320221990
Bartlett Res2220241992
Wikieup2120241992

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.