BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Oregon has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+88%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has surged in Oregon: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.4
20260.650.001.4
20270.660.001.4
20280.660.001.4
20290.670.001.4

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trout Creek4620212021
Catlow Rim2120241994
Warner Vally1320241993
Alvord Lake620241969
Princeton519851985
Blizzard Gap520241984
Adrian420211985
Three Forks220212018
Blitzen 2220241997
Crowley219941994
Blitzen219921984
Clover Creek219731973
Twickenham220152015
Harney Lake220241993
Flook Lake220072007
Fandango Can120242024
Malheur Nwr119941986
Elk Lake119971997
Battle Mtn119911985
Lookout Lake119941994
Barnhouse120222007
Green Mtn.120211995
Crane120231993
Crooked Riv.119951995

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.