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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

14×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 3.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 3.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025123.320
2026123.420
2027123.620
2028123.720
2029123.921

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shivwitz6620241992
Notom5920241987
Arches Np4920111989
Tule Valley4420131999
Glen Canyon3120241993
Bullfrog Bay3120172000
Desert View3020241987
Canyonlands3020061991
Canyonlands2920241986
Notch Peak2820241986
Hite2620231986
Salt Springs2520241986
Moquith Mtn2520241995
Callao2320241992
Gold Hill2220241987
Hatch2020241994
Vernal1919991999
Gilson Butte1820041993
Hanksville1720241986
Aneth1720241986
Gandy1720151997
Stock Res1520211986
Wellington 31420242012
Dragerton1420221986
Fish Springs1320241987

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.