BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in California has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970
78Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in California

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in California: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in California is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
2.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.295% range
±15.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.90.007.4
20262.90.007.4
20272.80.007.3
20282.80.007.3
20292.70.007.2

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in California.
Big Pine8420241968
Willow Spgs7619811968
Barstow6419981968
Cima5820211970
Ivanpah5220191988
Joshua Tree 24920162013
Greenwater V4720241972
Haiwee Res4420051975
Eureka Val4020241973
Flynn4019961988
Valley Wells3320231969
Essex3119961988
Needles3119731973
Lone Pine2820241970
Lane Mtn2719731973
Joshua Tree2520021970
Wildrose2420221977
Anza Borrego2220241968
Benton2020241974
Kelso Valley1820241973
Lucerne Val1720241974
Lenwood1619851973
Goldstone1420091968
Darwin1420121991
Pearblossom1320241970

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.