BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Texas has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Texas: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.009.2
20273.20.009.1
20283.10.009.0
20293.00.008.9
20302.90.008.8

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pumpville16620252006
Devils R Cyn10520251994
Casa Piedra8620251986
Pecos8220172017
Black Gap6420251988
Delaware Crk5720151971
Langtry5420001994
Bear Mtn4720251988
Comstock4420251967
Encinal4320101969
Catarina4220101970
Catarina 24020172011
Salt Flat3820151995
Sierra Blanc3820251999
Coyanda Draw3720251994
Marfa3320252004
El Indio3220071970
Shafter3219851969
Chisos Basin3220251995
Girvin3020251975
Toyahvale2920251996
Slaughter2720211968
Longfellow2620251968
Presidio2620252000
Ozona 22520252025

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.