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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Texas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Texas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.009.1
20263.10.008.9
20273.00.008.8
20282.80.008.7
20292.70.008.6

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pumpville8520242006
Pecos8220172017
Casa Piedra6620231986
Delaware Crk5720151971
Devils R Cyn5620241994
Langtry5420001994
Presidio4920232000
Encinal4320101969
Catarina4220101970
Longfellow4120241968
Coyanda Draw4120241994
Catarina 24020172011
Black Gap3820231988
Salt Flat3820151995
Girvin3620241975
El Indio3220071970
Shafter3219851969
Hot Springs2920241967
Slaughter2720211968
Laredo2520231994
Toyahvale2420241996
Mentone2420151999
Quitman Cyn.2320091999
Cornudas2120181968
Castolon2020241994

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.