BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0031
2027140.0031
2028140.0031
2029140.0031
2030140.0031

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne13619791968
Caliente11520251988
Sutcliffe7519721968
Rye Patch7219741968
Big Smokey V6119881988
Piute Mdws5920252005
Darroughs Hot Spgs5420242000
Silver Peak3820061968
Sand Pass3720251979
Nelson3120251995
Mill City3120212013
Val Of Fire3020251985
Fish Creek2820211997
Carson River2720052001
Beatty2520251986
Hiko2420251968
Dobbin Creek2220181968
Desert Nwr1720251990
Jean Lake1720131973
Oreana1520032002
Willis1320251988
Cortez1020251969
Frenchman919781973
Minerva920241988
Meadow Vally720251996

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.