BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025140.0031
2026140.0031
2027140.0030
2028140.0030
2029140.0030

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne13619791968
Sutcliffe7519721968
Rye Patch7219741968
Nelson6920241995
Big Smokey V6119881988
Darroughs Hot Spgs5420242000
Piute Mdws5320242005
Desert Nwr5220241990
Sand Pass5020241979
Beatty5020241986
Silver Peak3820061968
Willis3720241988
Hiko3120231968
Mill City3120212013
Fish Creek2820211997
Carson River2720052001
Dobbin Creek2220181968
Caliente1820211988
Jean Lake1720131973
Oreana1520032002
Ash Meadows1120241993
Cortez1020241969
Frenchman919781973
Minerva920241988
Nixon720241973

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.