BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025112.819
2026112.819
2027112.819
2028112.819
2029112.819

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Escondida7220241998
Sunshine Wll6020241992
Gage4620241968
Red Rock3720241992
Laborcita3520191992
Hatchet Peak3420241992
Laborcita 23020242022
Nageesi2920241968
Jornada2820241974
Mountainair2520241999
San Antonio2419771974
Engle2419891979
La Plata 22220162014
Roswell2120231969
Rodeo2120241974
Capitan Mtn.1820171993
Deming1719751968
Magdalena1620241997
Mesilla1620001992
Counselor1320241992
Queen1320211993
La Plata1320131990
Torreon1220241975
Salt Lake 21120242002
Columbus1020241992

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.