BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 3.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 3.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026112.919
2027112.919
2028112.919
2029113.019
2030113.019

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Escondida7420251998
Sunshine Wll6120251992
Red Rock4320251992
Laborcita 23620252022
Laborcita3520191992
Jornada3320251974
Roswell3220251969
Hatchet Peak3120251992
Mountainair2520241999
San Antonio2419771974
Rodeo2420251974
Engle2419891979
La Plata 22220162014
Counselor2020251992
Capitan Mtn.1820171993
Nageesi1720251968
Torreon1720251975
Deming1719751968
Mesilla1620001992
Columbus1420251992
Gage1320251968
Bitter Lake1320251994
Queen1320211993
La Plata1320131990
Cerro Verde1320251984

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.