BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Colorado

All statesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Colorado has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+37%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Sparrow Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Colorado is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Colorado is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.25
20260.080.000.25
20270.080.000.25
20280.080.000.25
20290.080.000.25

Black-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Antonito2619961996
Baxter Pass1120242006
San Luis919961996
Rosevale820242009
Maybell519741974
Villegreen419981998
Douglas Pass220241991
Fruita120062006
Browns Park120062006
Nucla120242013
Delta119881974
De Beque120142002
Basin120142008
Paonia120182016
Cortez120002000
Doyle Bridge119971994
Cone Mtn120242016

Black-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaidahonevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.