BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Arizona has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Roadrunner Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Arizona is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Arizona is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.002.2
20260.970.002.2
20270.960.002.2
20280.960.002.2
20290.950.002.2

Greater Roadrunner Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley1420241997
Rucker820091993
Wickenburg720212017
Ajo 2720192009
Sahuarita620241992
Bartlett Res520241993
Portal320241976
New River320161993
Redington320231993
Sunizona 2320232001
Oatman220181995
Wikieup220181993
Zeniff219841984
Dateland220211991
Pomerene220241968
Sunizona219971968
Bates Well220231995
Toroweap220131999
Alamo Res.220241992
Araby220231992
Red Rock220081993
Casa Grande220211993
Organ Pipe120231992
Dragoon120091993
Squaw Peak119701968

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniacoloradokansaslouisianamissourinevadanew-mexicooklahomatexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.