BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Texas has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
209Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Roadrunner Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner in Texas. See the full index history below.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Texas is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.70–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Texas is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.70–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.671.9
20261.30.681.9
20271.30.691.9
20281.30.691.9
20291.30.701.9

Greater Roadrunner Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedro Creek2020051998
San Pedro1820231996
El Sauz1320231993
Cavasara Cr.1220231995
Comstock1120171967
George West1020241967
Bear Mtn1020241988
Guerra1020231991
Catarina920101970
Randado820241967
Agua Nueva720231969
Zapata719871967
Girvin720171975
Three Rivers720241994
Girard720181994
Dove Mtn.720042004
Encinal 2620242011
Pecos620172017
Mirando City520241969
La Pryor520101970
Black Gap520231988
Delaware Crk520151972
Eldorado520231986
Catarina 3520242018
Sejita520231996

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.