BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Oklahoma has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+133%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Roadrunner Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has surged in Oklahoma: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.141.2
20270.670.141.2
20280.680.151.2
20290.690.161.2
20300.700.171.2

Greater Roadrunner Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East820252005
Wichita Mts West720252004
Lookout420252019
Ardmore320251967
Tatums320251993
Cooperton320252012
Wichita Mtns319941994
Mill Creek220161969
Loco219751975
Reed220191969
Baron220141971
Chester219881969
Felt220162015
Colony219951995
Ft Sill West219941994
Hunter219981998
Jet220162000
Hee Mountain220052005
Big Cedar120111974
Blanco120161968
Phroso120251991
Phillips120012001
Randlett120231992
Cookietown120021969
Canadian120161991

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.