BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner Population Analysis

CuculidaeArid-land birdsGeococcyx californianus

Greater Roadrunner has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
573RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Greater Roadrunner

The Greater Roadrunner (Geococcyx californianus) is a North American member of the Cuckoos, Roadrunners & Anis (Cuculidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
10.5–22 in long (27–56 cm) — a slender, long-tailed bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 573 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 12 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Cuculidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Greater Roadrunner TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner. See the full index history below.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.07–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.07–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.070.18
20270.130.070.18
20280.130.070.19
20290.130.070.19
20300.130.070.19

Where the Greater Roadrunner Is Detected

BBS routes recording Greater Roadrunner, sized by most recent count.

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend by State

Greater Roadrunner population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-21%197063
Arkansas+90%197030
California-79%197096
Colorado-70%199212
Kansas-9%19797
Louisiana-69%196920
Missouri-57%19759
Nevada+52%19946
New Mexico+151%197058
Oklahoma+133%196955
Texas+15%1969210
Utah+130%20097

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Greater Roadrunner population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+12%20026
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+0%197233
Shortgrass Prairie-33%197050
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+88%196955
Edwards Plateau-32%196919
Oaks and Prairies+54%196965
Central Hardwoods+1%197122
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-13%196967
Coastal California-79%197158
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-61%197074
Sierra Madre Occidental-33%197026
Chihuahuan Desert-13%196956
Tamaulipan Brushlands+55%196927
Gulf Coastal Prairie+607%197812

Greater Roadrunner Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 40% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.