BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Roadrunner In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.1
20260.420.001.1
20270.420.001.1
20280.410.001.1
20290.400.001.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WickenburgARIZONA72021
Ajo 2ARIZONA72019
CimaCALIFORNIA62021
New RiverARIZONA32016
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA31994
BrawleyCALIFORNIA32010
Ash MeadowsNEVADA32024
OatmanARIZONA22018
WikieupARIZONA22018
DatelandARIZONA22021
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22024
ArabyARIZONA22023
Red RockARIZONA22008
Casa GrandeARIZONA22021
Bates WellARIZONA22023
UbehebeCALIFORNIA21987
InyokernCALIFORNIA22024
IvanpahCALIFORNIA21994
EssexCALIFORNIA21994
NilandCALIFORNIA22023
BlytheCALIFORNIA22003
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22022
Squaw PeakARIZONA11970
QuartzsiteARIZONA12024
VicksburgARIZONA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.