BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Greater Roadrunner In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.31–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.31–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.283.2
20261.70.293.2
20271.70.293.2
20281.70.303.2
20291.70.313.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ComstockTEXAS112017
Bear MtnTEXAS102024
GirvinTEXAS72017
Dove Mtn.TEXAS72004
Black GapTEXAS52023
Delaware CrkTEXAS52015
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS42023
ToyahvaleTEXAS42024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32022
OzonaTEXAS32019
Devils R CynTEXAS32024
Coyanda DrawTEXAS32024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
DemingNEW-MEXICO21974
PinonNEW-MEXICO22017
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
LongfellowTEXAS22023
AltudaTEXAS22018
ValentineTEXAS21987
SlaughterTEXAS22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.