BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Roadrunner In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.4
20261.20.003.4
20271.20.003.4
20281.20.003.3
20291.10.003.3

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA142024
RuckerARIZONA82009
SahuaritaARIZONA62024
Bartlett ResARIZONA52024
RedingtonARIZONA32023
PortalARIZONA32024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32021
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32024
PomereneARIZONA22024
SunizonaARIZONA21997
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22024
PrescottARIZONA12015
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
PatagoniaARIZONA12023
Forest LakesARIZONA12021
CutterARIZONA12014
AmadoARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12023
Clay SpringARIZONA12014
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
SprucedaleARIZONA12023
DragoonARIZONA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.