BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Greater Roadrunner In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.02–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±601.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±601.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.02–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±601.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.010.32
20260.170.010.33
20270.170.020.33
20280.170.020.33
20290.170.020.33

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS62017
CrowleyCOLORADO42010
PlainsTEXAS42018
Cone MtnCOLORADO32018
NinaviewCOLORADO32017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32018
StilesTEXAS32019
SkellytownTEXAS32024
CactusTEXAS31994
Mica ButteCOLORADO21972
GilpinCOLORADO22024
VillegreenCOLORADO22018
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO22018
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22019
San SimonNEW-MEXICO22019
FeltOKLAHOMA22016
MiamiTEXAS22016
WinkTEXAS21986
SaragosaTEXAS22024
Kermit 2TEXAS22017
TrincheraCOLORADO12019
CampoCOLORADO12016
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12007
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.