BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+607%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Greater Roadrunner In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.04–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.04–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.630.001.3
20270.640.011.3
20280.650.011.3
20290.660.031.3
20300.670.041.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS92025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS72025
BaysideTEXAS32003
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32025
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22017
Loyola BeachTEXAS22008
Bayside 2TEXAS22004
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22014
PetronilaTEXAS12001
VanderbiltTEXAS11975
Bayside 3TEXAS12017
McfaddinTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.