BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Greater Roadrunner In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.53–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.53–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.501.4
20270.970.511.4
20280.980.511.5
20290.990.521.5
20301.00.531.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS152025
PaigeTEXAS52024
SeldenTEXAS42025
BriteTEXAS42025
CreedmoreTEXAS42014
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32025
TatumsOKLAHOMA32025
OsageTEXAS32023
GrafordTEXAS32018
YoakumTEXAS32022
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22016
LocoOKLAHOMA21975
MuldoonTEXAS22024
WeatherfordTEXAS22025
Miller GroveTEXAS22023
GainesvilleTEXAS22022
HearneTEXAS22019
WalburgTEXAS22012
FanninTEXAS22021
DuranTEXAS21999
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22019
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
BeggsOKLAHOMA11967
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12022
NobleOKLAHOMA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.