BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in New Mexico has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+129%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Roadrunner Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has surged in New Mexico: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in New Mexico is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in New Mexico is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.231.2
20260.710.241.2
20270.720.241.2
20280.720.251.2
20290.730.261.2

Greater Roadrunner Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 2420242024
Laborcita420191992
Reserve320212008
Capitan Mtn.320171998
Bitter Lake320221995
Emory Pass320241999
Sabinoso320181980
San Simon220191979
Salt Lake 2220242016
Cooley Lake220241974
Horse Mtn220241968
San Antonio219771977
Deming219741968
Magdalena220241999
Variadero220181998
Rosebud220192019
Pastura220151999
Vicks Peak220231993
Pinon220171994
Hatchet Peak220241998
Columbus220241992
Cebolla120182018
Farley120151997
Grenville120211968
La Cienega120161981

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.