BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Arkansas has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Roadrunner Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has surged in Arkansas: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Roadrunner Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.050.38
20260.220.050.38
20270.220.060.38
20280.220.060.38
20290.220.060.39

Greater Roadrunner Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Havana320152015
Saffell220062006
Massard220211970
Fulton220241969
Farwell220182010
Russell220172012
Old Milo120072007
Ramsey119771968
Locust Bayou120131984
Magazine Mtn120121994
Hope120192007
Crowley'S Ridge120212012
Hatfield 2120242019
Hollywood120191970
Blakely119991999
Waldron119961969
Augusta119721972
Rupert120241971
Stark120081991
Coal Hill120172003
Lurton119761969
Zion120161974
Compton119751975
Yellville120102010
Ravenden Springs120102010

Greater Roadrunner Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.