BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Roadrunner In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.20–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.20–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.170.93
20260.550.170.94
20270.560.180.94
20280.570.190.95
20290.580.200.96

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GirardTEXAS72018
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA62022
EldoradoTEXAS52023
CoopertonOKLAHOMA42023
Shields 2TEXAS42023
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA31994
WeinertTEXAS31994
HawleyTEXAS32013
ReedOKLAHOMA22019
ChesterOKLAHOMA21988
HollisOKLAHOMA22024
HunterOKLAHOMA21998
JetOKLAHOMA22016
ColonyOKLAHOMA21995
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA21994
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22022
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
GraybackTEXAS22021
MertzonTEXAS22017
ClarendonTEXAS22024
RotanTEXAS22018
Beaver CreekTEXAS22019
St JohnKANSAS12011
CoatsKANSAS12024
ColdwaterKANSAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.