BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Greater Roadrunner In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.59 (95% range 0.21–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.59 (95% range 0.21–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.180.94
20270.570.190.95
20280.580.200.95
20290.580.210.96
20300.590.210.97

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA82025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA72025
GirardTEXAS72018
Shields 2TEXAS72025
EldoradoTEXAS52023
WilliamsTEXAS52025
LookoutOKLAHOMA42025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA32025
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA31994
WeinertTEXAS31994
ChildressTEXAS32025
HawleyTEXAS32013
ReedOKLAHOMA22019
ChesterOKLAHOMA21988
HunterOKLAHOMA21998
JetOKLAHOMA22016
ColonyOKLAHOMA21995
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA21994
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
GraybackTEXAS22021
MertzonTEXAS22017
ClarendonTEXAS22024
RotanTEXAS22018
SilverTEXAS22025
Beaver CreekTEXAS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.