BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Roadrunner In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaArid-land birds

Greater Roadrunner in Coastal California has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-79%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Roadrunner has collapsed in Coastal California: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Greater Roadrunner In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Coastal California is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Roadrunner in Coastal California is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.18
20270.030.000.18
20280.030.000.17
20290.030.000.17
20300.020.000.17

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Greater Roadrunner in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JacumbaCALIFORNIA32025
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA32017
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA21994
Big BearCALIFORNIA21981
MaricopaCALIFORNIA21993
SangerCALIFORNIA22021
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11979
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA12003
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA11999
GravesboroCALIFORNIA11974
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA12022
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA11997
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA11997
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA11982
MorenoCALIFORNIA12025
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12023
San YsidroCALIFORNIA11987
HollisterCALIFORNIA11992
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12010
PowayCALIFORNIA11979
OnoCALIFORNIA12006
FolsomCALIFORNIA12022
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA11981
El ToroCALIFORNIA11999
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.