BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Arizona has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026113.917
2027113.917
2028113.917
2029113.917
2030114.017

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe5820231990
New River5120161974
Vicksburg4619891968
Florence4619881968
Red Rock 24520242015
Bates Well4420231995
Pisinimo3119931992
Cutter3020141992
Dragoon2920091993
Sahuarita2920251992
Cutter 22620182015
Bartlett Res2620251992
Lukeville2419811975
Wikieup2320241992
San Simon2220241969
Mcneal2220251992
Sunizona1819971968
Wickenburg1820232017
Red Rock1520141992
Carr Mtn1420251985
Pomerene1320251968
Portal1220251975
Peña Blanca1120241975
Gila Bend1120251995
Cabeza Priet1020251993

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.