BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.69–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.69–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.684.7
20272.70.684.7
20282.70.684.7
20292.70.684.7
20302.70.694.7

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cactus Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2420251992
Deming1519751968
Mesilla1520001993
Gage1320251968
Hatchet Peak1220251992
Rodeo1120251974
Jornada820251974
San Simon720181979
Maljamar519751975
Magdalena520182005
Pastura520252000
Cooley Lake420191992
Roswell420251968
Corona East419951993
Sunshine Wll420251992
Horse Mtn320231968
Variadero320211994
Queen320191993
Sabinoso320211988
Logan320251991
Escondida320232008
Correo219781978
Gallo Arroyo220181996
Sedan220182018
Rosebud220252016

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.