BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.72–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.72–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.714.7
20262.70.714.7
20272.70.714.7
20282.70.724.8
20292.70.724.8

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cactus Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatchet Peak2920241992
Red Rock2520241992
Gage1920241968
Deming1519751968
Mesilla1520001993
Rodeo1320241974
Pastura1220242000
San Simon720181979
Sunshine Wll720241992
Maljamar519751975
Magdalena520182005
Cooley Lake420191992
Corona East419951993
Vicks Peak420231992
Horse Mtn320231968
Variadero320211994
Queen320191993
Sabinoso320211988
Escondida320232008
Correo219781978
Roswell220221968
Jornada220241974
Gallo Arroyo220181996
Sedan220182018
Laborcita220182018

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.