BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Texas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Texas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.09–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.09–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.325.0
20272.60.265.0
20282.60.214.9
20292.50.154.9
20302.40.094.8

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zapata5319871967
Black Gap4720251988
Pumpville3820252006
Wink3519861975
San Ygnacio3319851967
Hot Springs2820251967
Chisos Basin2720251995
Ft. Davis2620252004
Pecos2320172017
Shafter2219851969
Devils R Cyn2220251994
El Sauz2120231993
Encinal2020101969
Hondo1920251969
Dilley1920252022
Valentine1819871969
El Indio1720011970
Millett 21720242013
Slaughter1520211968
Casa Piedra1520251986
Encinal 21520252011
Brite1520251994
Van Horn1520252017
Cavasara Cr.1520251995
Catarina 21320172011

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.