BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Texas has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Texas: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.12–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.12–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.355.1
20262.70.295.0
20272.60.235.0
20282.60.184.9
20292.50.124.9

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zapata5319871967
Ft. Davis4520232004
Wink3519861975
San Ygnacio3319851967
Black Gap3220231988
Pumpville3220242006
Hot Springs2820241967
Castolon2520241994
Pecos2320172017
Shafter2219851969
Chisos Basin2220241995
El Sauz2120231993
Bear Mtn2120241988
Encinal2020101969
Valentine1819871969
El Indio1720011970
Presidio1720232000
Millett 21720242013
Devils R Cyn1620241994
Slaughter1520211968
Guerra1520231988
Encinal 21520242011
Marfa1520242004
Cavasara Cr.1420231995
Catarina 21320172011

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.