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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Nevada has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Nevada is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±427.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±427.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Nevada is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±427.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.001.7
20270.660.001.7
20280.660.001.7
20290.660.001.7
20300.660.001.7

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caliente3020251988
Desert Nwr520251990
Jean Lake320131973
Nelson220241995
Hiko220181968
Meadow Vally119991996
Beatty120242024
Alamo119731968
Val Of Fire120241988

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.