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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 101% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±410.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 101% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.001.6
20260.580.001.6
20270.580.001.6
20280.580.001.6
20290.570.001.5

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Desert Nwr420241990
Jean Lake320131973
Caliente320211988
Nelson220241995
Hiko220181968
Meadow Vally119991996
Beatty120242024
Alamo119731968
Val Of Fire120241988

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.