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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in California has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has collapsed in California: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in California is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in California is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.001.6
20270.500.001.6
20280.470.001.6
20290.450.001.6
20300.430.001.5

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Cactus Wren in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Anza Borrego3220251968
Barstow2619981968
Joshua Tree2520021970
Joshua Tree 22220252013
Cima1520211970
Willow Spgs1219811968
Kelso Valley1120251973
Pearblossom1120251970
Glamis920181968
Essex919961988
Goldstone820091968
Coachella Cn820131973
Valley Wells720191969
Havasu Lake719781973
Flynn619961988
Cottonwood520191980
Parker Dam319781975
Oak Grove320251968
Jofegan 2220252025
Jacumba220251973
Greenwater V220161993
Cholla Gard.220211995
Haiwee Res220051976
Onyx220151968
South Lake220062006

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.