BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in California has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cactus Wren Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has collapsed in California: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in California is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in California is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.001.6
20260.480.001.6
20270.460.001.6
20280.440.001.5
20290.410.001.5

Cactus Wren Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Cactus Wren in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Anza Borrego5120241968
Barstow2619981968
Joshua Tree2520021970
Joshua Tree 22420162013
Cima1520211970
Willow Spgs1219811968
Glamis920181968
Essex919961988
Goldstone820091968
Coachella Cn820131973
Lucerne Val819991974
Valley Wells720191969
Havasu Lake719781973
Flynn619961988
Cottonwood520191980
Pearblossom520241970
Jacumba420241973
Parker Dam319781975
Greenwater V220161993
Cholla Gard.220211995
Haiwee Res220051976
Onyx220151968
South Lake220062006
Moreno219691969
Oak Grove220241968

Cactus Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.