BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren

TroglodytidaeArid-land birdsCampylorhynchus brunneicapillus

Cactus Wren has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Cactus Wren

The Cactus Wren (Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus) is a North American member of the Wrens (Troglodytidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4–8.5 in long (10–22 cm) — a small, energetic songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 278 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Troglodytidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Cactus Wren TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.17–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.17–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.170.77
20260.470.170.77
20270.470.170.76
20280.470.170.76
20290.460.170.76

Where the Cactus Wren Is Detected

BBS routes recording Cactus Wren, sized by most recent count.

Cactus Wren Population Trend by State

Cactus Wren population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-10%197059
California-82%197051
Nevada-72%19709
New Mexico+9%197043
Texas-59%1969115
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Cactus Wren Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Cactus Wren population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-63%19904
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-64%197116
Shortgrass Prairie-91%196926
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-77%197113
Edwards Plateau-63%197112
Oaks and Prairies-59%196911
Coastal California-9%197014
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-55%197077
Sierra Madre Occidental-3%197021
Chihuahuan Desert-46%196952
Tamaulipan Brushlands-59%196927
Gulf Coastal Prairie-50%19725

Cactus Wren Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 22% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.