BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cactus Wren In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.0
20260.260.001.0
20270.260.001.0
20280.250.001.0
20290.250.001.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriteTEXAS82024
AlbanyTEXAS41997
Three RiversTEXAS42024
LockhartTEXAS22015
Lone OakTEXAS22003
SchroederTEXAS11980
HobsonTEXAS12011
CampbelltonTEXAS12023
CottonwoodTEXAS11986
OlneyTEXAS11997
MegargelTEXAS11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.