BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cactus Wren In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.80.0016
20275.50.0016
20285.20.0015
20294.90.0015
20304.60.0015

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapataTEXAS531987
San YgnacioTEXAS331985
El SauzTEXAS212023
EncinalTEXAS202010
HondoTEXAS192025
DilleyTEXAS192025
El IndioTEXAS172001
Millett 2TEXAS172024
Encinal 2TEXAS152025
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS152025
Catarina 2TEXAS132017
GuerraTEXAS122025
Catarina 3TEXAS122024
LaredoTEXAS112023
CatarinaTEXAS102010
SejitaTEXAS72024
George WestTEXAS62025
MillettTEXAS52012
La PryorTEXAS42005
Pedro CreekTEXAS42010
Mirando CityTEXAS32025
RaymondvilleTEXAS32025
RachalTEXAS12025
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
KingsvilleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.