BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-64%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cactus Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±163%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.20
20260.070.000.20
20270.070.000.20
20280.070.000.20
20290.070.000.20

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PasturaNEW-MEXICO122024
Peach SpringARIZONA52018
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO41995
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO32023
The GapARIZONA21968
ToroweapARIZONA22019
CorreoNEW-MEXICO21978
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO22018
CastletonUTAH21977
YampaiARIZONA11975
Navajo TrailARIZONA12018
SeligmanARIZONA12018
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO11996
MountainairNEW-MEXICO12023
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO12018
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.