BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-74%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cactus Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.30
20270.030.000.29
20280.020.000.29
20290.020.000.28
20300.010.000.28

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mertzon 2TEXAS32022
WinchellTEXAS22005
ShieldsTEXAS22001
WallTEXAS22018
SilverTEXAS22025
Shields 2TEXAS22018
Pear ValleyTEXAS12023
WeinertTEXAS11993
MertzonTEXAS12019
RotanTEXAS11977
EldoradoTEXAS12023
HaskellTEXAS11995
GirardTEXAS12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.