BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-50%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.160.000.36
20250.160.000.36
20260.160.000.36
20270.160.000.36
20280.160.000.36

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32023
San PedroTEXAS22016
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12015
Loyola BeachTEXAS12009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.