BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 2.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 2.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.52.217
20269.42.217
20279.42.117
20289.32.117
20299.32.017

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA582023
New RiverARIZONA512016
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA512024
VicksburgARIZONA461989
FlorenceARIZONA461988
Red Rock 2ARIZONA452024
Bates WellARIZONA442023
PisinimoARIZONA311993
Cutter 2ARIZONA262018
BarstowCALIFORNIA261998
Alamo Res.ARIZONA252024
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA252002
LukevilleARIZONA241981
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA242016
WikieupARIZONA232024
Cabeza PrietARIZONA182024
WickenburgARIZONA182023
AntaresARIZONA162024
Red RockARIZONA152014
CimaCALIFORNIA152021
OatmanARIZONA142021
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA121981
RivieraARIZONA112024
Cactus ForestARIZONA92024
Hope 2ARIZONA92019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.