BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cactus Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 228% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±504.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+228%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±504.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 228% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±504.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.001.7
20270.530.001.7
20280.530.001.7
20290.520.001.7
20300.510.001.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinkTEXAS351986
PecosTEXAS232017
San SimonNEW-MEXICO72018
KermitTEXAS71999
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO51975
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO42019
RankinTEXAS42025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO32021
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
LoganNEW-MEXICO32025
MentoneTEXAS32015
SedanNEW-MEXICO22018
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22025
LamesaTEXAS21972
Frankel CityTEXAS22019
DoughertyTEXAS21995
SaragosaTEXAS22023
FloydNEW-MEXICO12022
CaprockNEW-MEXICO12009
PepNEW-MEXICO12014
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12000
PostTEXAS12019
ChanningTEXAS11987
PantexTEXAS12025
StilesTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.