BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969
26Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cactus Wren has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 556% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±420.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+556%Change by 2029
0.55Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±420.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.570.001.8
20260.570.001.8
20270.560.001.8
20280.560.001.8
20290.550.001.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
WinkTEXAS351986
PecosTEXAS232017
San SimonNEW-MEXICO72018
KermitTEXAS71999
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO51975
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO42019
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO32021
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
StilesTEXAS32024
MentoneTEXAS32015
SedanNEW-MEXICO22018
RankinTEXAS22024
LamesaTEXAS21972
Frankel CityTEXAS22019
DoughertyTEXAS21995
SaragosaTEXAS22023
FloydNEW-MEXICO12022
CaprockNEW-MEXICO12009
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12023
PepNEW-MEXICO12014
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12000
LoganNEW-MEXICO12024
PostTEXAS12019
ChanningTEXAS11987
MidlandTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.