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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-63%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cactus Wren In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 408% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±448.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+408%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±448.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 408% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±448.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.002.9
20260.720.002.9
20270.690.002.9
20280.660.002.8
20290.640.002.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoerneTEXAS11996
UtopiaTEXAS12003
Valley SpgsTEXAS12014
HarperTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS11996
Indian MtnTEXAS11998
LeanderTEXAS11996
LeakeyTEXAS11994
MontellTEXAS12022
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12017
RockspringTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.