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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-61%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cactus Wren has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cactus Wren In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 197% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±455.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+197%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±455.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 197% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±455.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.002.8
20270.640.002.8
20280.620.002.8
20290.590.002.7
20300.560.002.7

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontellTEXAS32025
BoerneTEXAS11996
UtopiaTEXAS12003
Valley SpgsTEXAS12014
HarperTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS11996
Indian MtnTEXAS11998
LeanderTEXAS11996
LeakeyTEXAS11994
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12017
RockspringTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.