BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Coastal California is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Coastal California is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.24
20260.110.000.24
20270.110.000.24
20280.110.000.24
20290.110.000.24

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JacumbaCALIFORNIA42024
MorenoCALIFORNIA21969
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA22024
El ToroCALIFORNIA21999
AnzaCALIFORNIA21979
South LakeCALIFORNIA22006
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA11978
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA11991
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA12024
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA11991
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA11977
VentucopaCALIFORNIA11972
JofeganCALIFORNIA12009
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.