BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 3.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 3.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.03.215
20269.03.215
20279.13.215
20289.13.315
20299.23.315

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA432024
Bartlett ResARIZONA422024
CutterARIZONA302014
DragoonARIZONA292009
Carr MtnARIZONA232024
San SimonARIZONA222024
AmadoARIZONA212023
SunizonaARIZONA181997
RedingtonARIZONA162023
Peña BlancaARIZONA112024
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
RuckerARIZONA92009
PomereneARIZONA82024
McnealARIZONA72024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO52018
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO42023
Skull ValleyARIZONA32015
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32024
PortalARIZONA22024
PatagoniaARIZONA12007
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.