BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 3.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 3.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.82.915
20278.82.915
20288.83.015
20298.93.015
20308.93.015

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA302014
SahuaritaARIZONA292025
DragoonARIZONA292009
Bartlett ResARIZONA262025
San SimonARIZONA222024
McnealARIZONA222025
SunizonaARIZONA181997
Carr MtnARIZONA142025
PomereneARIZONA132025
PortalARIZONA122025
Peña BlancaARIZONA112024
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
RuckerARIZONA92009
AmadoARIZONA82025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA82025
RedingtonARIZONA72025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO52018
Skull ValleyARIZONA32015
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
PatagoniaARIZONA12007
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.