BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cactus Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.9 (95% range 0.43–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.9 (95% range 0.43–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.51.018
20269.40.8818
20279.20.7318
20289.10.5818
20298.90.4317

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. DavisTEXAS452023
Black GapTEXAS322023
PumpvilleTEXAS322024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO292024
Hot SpringsTEXAS282024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO252024
CastolonTEXAS252024
ShafterTEXAS221985
Chisos BasinTEXAS222024
Bear MtnTEXAS212024
GageNEW-MEXICO192024
ValentineTEXAS181987
PresidioTEXAS172023
Devils R CynTEXAS162024
DemingNEW-MEXICO151975
MesillaNEW-MEXICO152000
SlaughterTEXAS152021
MarfaTEXAS152024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO132024
LangtryTEXAS132000
Dove Mtn.TEXAS132006
MarathonTEXAS132023
LongfellowTEXAS82024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO72024
CornudasTEXAS72018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.