BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cactus Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Cactus Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 0.42–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 0.42–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.41.018
20279.30.8618
20289.20.7218
20299.00.5717
20308.90.4217

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cactus Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black GapTEXAS472025
PumpvilleTEXAS382025
Hot SpringsTEXAS282025
Chisos BasinTEXAS272025
Ft. DavisTEXAS262025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO242025
ShafterTEXAS221985
Devils R CynTEXAS222025
ValentineTEXAS181987
DemingNEW-MEXICO151975
MesillaNEW-MEXICO152000
SlaughterTEXAS152021
Casa PiedraTEXAS152025
Van HornTEXAS152025
GageNEW-MEXICO132025
LangtryTEXAS132000
Coyanda DrawTEXAS132025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS132006
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO122025
GirvinTEXAS122025
Bear MtnTEXAS122025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO112025
LongfellowTEXAS102025
MarathonTEXAS92025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.