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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

LeConte's Thrasher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

LeConte's Thrasher in Arizona has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable LeConte's Thrasher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Thrasher has collapsed in Arizona: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

LeConte's Thrasher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Thrasher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Thrasher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.23
20270.000.000.23
20280.000.000.23
20290.000.000.23
20300.000.000.23

LeConte's Thrasher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording LeConte's Thrasher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dateland420121998
Cibola Lake319941994
Vicksburg319891968
Gila Bend120252025
Palo Verde120122012
Willow Beach119891989
Oatman119881988
Willow Beach 2120212021
Bates Well120192019
Quartzsite119791979
Hope120032003
Laguna120031968
Ajo120011970
Coolidge119741974
Alamo Res.120182008

LeConte's Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.