Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
LeConte's Thrasher Population Trend in California
LeConte's Thrasher in California has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-97%Since 1970
43Routes In State
56Years
Notable LeConte's Thrasher Trends in California
long arc declinecomputed index
LeConte's Thrasher has collapsed in California: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
LeConte's Thrasher Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Thrasher in California is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6995% range
±478.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
LeConte's Thrasher Survey Routes in California
| Willow Spgs | 13 | 1981 | 1968 |
| Goldstone | 9 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Valley Wells | 5 | 2023 | 1969 |
| Ivanpah | 5 | 2019 | 1989 |
| Bakersfield | 4 | 1973 | 1968 |
| Iron Mtns | 4 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Death Valley | 4 | 1995 | 1975 |
| Wildrose | 3 | 2022 | 1978 |
| Barstow | 3 | 1996 | 1968 |
| Havasu Lake | 3 | 1973 | 1973 |
| Cottonwood | 3 | 2019 | 1973 |
| Blythe | 3 | 1973 | 1973 |
| Joshua Tree | 2 | 2000 | 1972 |
| Carrizo Pln | 2 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Cadiz | 2 | 1988 | 1988 |
| Lenwood | 2 | 1993 | 1973 |
| Joshua Tree 2 | 2 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Lone Pine | 2 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Maricopa | 2 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Kelso Valley | 1 | 1980 | 1975 |
| Greenwater V | 1 | 2019 | 1972 |
| Cholla Gard. | 1 | 2003 | 1995 |
| Shafter | 1 | 1989 | 1971 |
| Arvin | 1 | 1972 | 1971 |
| Ubehebe | 1 | 1990 | 1990 |
LeConte's Thrasher Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.