BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In Utah

All statesUtah

8 species in this guild. As a group they are +3%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Utah. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Utah Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.36–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.36–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.50.428.5
20274.50.418.5
20284.40.398.5
20294.40.378.5
20304.40.368.5

Member Species In Utah

Arid-land birds species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-98%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-89%
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-33%
Sage ThrasherMimidae-7%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+66%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+130%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+505%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae14×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.