BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In Utah

All statesUtah

4 species in this guild. As a group they are +277%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1971.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Utah. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Utah is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Utah is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.0010
20263.60.0010
20273.60.0010
20283.60.0010
20293.60.0010

Member Species In Utah

Arid-land birds species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+151%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+682%
Gambel's QuailOdontophoridae+911%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae14×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.