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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Black-chinned Sparrow in Utah has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-89%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Sparrow has collapsed in Utah: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±280.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±280.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±280.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.12
20270.000.000.12
20280.000.000.12
20290.000.000.12
20300.000.000.12

Black-chinned Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-chinned Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanksville420162010
Beck319681968
Shivwitz320101996
Moquith Mtn320231996
Navajo Lake119991971
Newcastle120251997

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.