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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-chinned Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-32%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11
20300.040.000.11

Black-chinned Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-chinned Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt Flat920151995
Marfa620252023
Toyahvale220251998
Bear Mtn220241992
Chisos Basin120241995

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.