BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Black-chinned Sparrow in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-1%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.02–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.02–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.020.56
20270.290.020.56
20280.290.020.56
20290.290.020.56
20300.290.020.56

Black-chinned Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-chinned Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emory Pass720251995
Gage619741974
Claunch 2420252002
Carrizozo320251974
Mcgaffey319971997
Mountainair220242024
Capitan Mtn.220171998
La Cienega220182003
Claunch219981989
Magdalena120181999
Reserve120012001
Vicks Peak120251999
Red Rock120092009
Pinon120241992
Queen120211993
Sabinoso120152000
Logan119931992
Horse Mtn120211997

Black-chinned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.