BirdAnalyst
Guild · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In California

All statesCalifornia

10 species in this guild. As a group they are -69% since 1970.

Guild Signals

guild collapsecomputed index

Arid-land birds as a group have fallen sharply in California, down 69% since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in California is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029
0.53Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±9.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.580.001.4
20260.570.001.4
20270.560.001.4
20280.540.001.4
20290.530.001.4

Member Species In California

Arid-land birds species in California.
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-82%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae-80%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-74%
VerdinRemizidae-66%
Gambel's QuailOdontophoridae-66%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-59%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+17%
Abert's TowheePasserellidae+57%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+101%
Gila WoodpeckerPicidae+144%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.