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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Towhee Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

California Towhee in California has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Towhee Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in California. See the full index history below.

California Towhee Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in California is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.9–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in California is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.9–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.34.18.5
20276.24.08.4
20286.24.08.4
20296.13.98.3
20306.13.98.3

California Towhee Survey Routes in California

Routes recording California Towhee in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colma9419721968
Poway8619801973
Harbor Lake 26420242014
Elsinore Mtn6020251970
Tujunga5220211970
Cuyamaca Pk5220251970
Oak Grove5120251968
White River4919921972
Jofegan 24820252024
Jacumba4520251973
Harbor Lake4419911973
Rumsey3820081969
Mt Baldy3320241970
Jackson3319921972
Mark West3220251972
Tres Pinos 23020112005
Foster Park2919941968
Sisquoc2820141970
Moreno2620251969
Anza 22620252005
Carmel Val2220251973
Lake Berryessa2220252023
Kernville2220082008
Mesa Grande2120251970
Yokohl Val2019971972

California Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.