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Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Towhee Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

California Towhee in California has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Towhee Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in California. See the full index history below.

California Towhee Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.08.4
20266.14.08.3
20276.13.98.3
20286.13.98.2
20296.03.88.2

California Towhee Survey Routes in California

Routes recording California Towhee in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colma9419721968
Poway8619801973
Oak Grove7320241968
Harbor Lake 26420242014
Cuyamaca Pk5720241970
Tujunga5220211970
Elsinore Mtn5220241970
White River4919921972
Harbor Lake4419911973
Mark West4220241972
Jacumba4020241973
Jofegan 23920242024
Rumsey3820081969
Adelaida3320241970
Mt Baldy3320241970
Jackson3319921972
Tres Pinos 23020112005
Foster Park2919941968
Sisquoc2820141970
Gold Hill2520241974
Folsom2320241984
Kernville2220082008
Mesa Grande2120241970
Anza 22120242005
Yokohl Val2019971972

California Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.