BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Towhee

PasserellidaeArid-land birdsMelozone crissalis

California Towhee has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the California Towhee

The California Towhee (Melozone crissalis) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 166 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
Family
Passerellidae · Arid-land birds

Notable California Towhee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee. See the full index history below.

California Towhee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.50
20260.210.000.49
20270.210.000.48
20280.200.000.48
20290.190.000.47

Where the California Towhee Is Detected

BBS routes recording California Towhee, sized by most recent count.

California Towhee Population Trend by State

California Towhee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
California-1%1970158
Oregon-45%19718

California Towhee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

California Towhee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-82%197031
Great Basin+539%19836
Sierra Nevada-6%197017
Coastal California+13%1970107
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+23%19705

California Towhee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 9% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.